Cardiff City vs West Ham United
Our model puts a West Ham United win at 52.8% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.08 to 1.76.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,313 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 712 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
West Ham United carry a rating of 1702 against 1558 for Cardiff City, a gap of 144 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, West Ham United's attack should find room against Cardiff City's defence, by 204 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
West Ham United take 15.5 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.