Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Our model puts a Wolverhampton Wanderers win at 40.8% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.16 to 1.35.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,313 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 37.8% of the time — 831 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Wolverhampton Wanderers carry a rating of 1630 against 1526 for Bristol City, a gap of 104 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Wolverhampton Wanderers's attack should find room against Bristol City's defence, by 96 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Wolverhampton Wanderers struggles to hit the target: 23.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Wolverhampton Wanderers take 15.4 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.