Athletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama

Wednesday, 4 November 2026 at 22:30

Win probability

53%

Athletico Paranaense wins

24%

Draw

24%

Vasco da Gama wins

xG Home

1.77

Athletico Paranaense

Blowout %

46%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.11

Vasco da Gama

Analysis

Our model puts an Athletico Paranaense win at 52.6% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.77 to 1.11.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,313 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 48.7% of the time — 712 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 28 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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