Watford vs Lincoln City
Our model puts a Lincoln City win at 43.6% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.15 to 1.44.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,347 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 845 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Lincoln City carry a rating of 1608 against 1471 for Watford, a gap of 136 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lincoln City's attack should find room against Watford's defence, by 122 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Lincoln City collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
30% of Watford's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 10 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
58.2% of the shots on target Watford face do not end up in the net, against 67.2% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.