Portsmouth vs Swansea City
Our model puts a Portsmouth win at 45.6% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.42 to 1.04.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,347 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 722 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
Portsmouth struggles to hit the target: 25.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.8%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.