Northampton Town vs Oldham Athletic
Our model puts a Northampton Town win at 42% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.42 to 1.2.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,347 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 845 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Oldham Athletic at 2.6, which implies about 38.5%. Our model has it at 31.8% — 6.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Northampton Town are off their season peak
Northampton Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1409 today, 91 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.