Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers

Tuesday, 3 November 2026 at 19:45

Win probability

35%

Charlton Athletic wins

26%

Draw

39%

Bolton Wanderers wins

xG Home

1.29

Charlton Athletic

Blowout %

33%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.38

Bolton Wanderers

Analysis

Our model puts a Bolton Wanderers win at 39% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.29 to 1.38.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,347 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 845 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 27 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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