Chapecoense vs Mirassol

Tuesday, 3 November 2026 at 22:30

Win probability

29%

Chapecoense wins

24%

Draw

47%

Mirassol wins

xG Home

1.27

Chapecoense

Blowout %

29%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.70

Mirassol

Analysis

Our model puts a Mirassol win at 47.2% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.7.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,347 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 722 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 27 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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