Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City

Tuesday, 3 November 2026 at 19:45

Win probability

48%

Blackburn Rovers wins

26%

Draw

27%

Stoke City wins

xG Home

1.54

Blackburn Rovers

Blowout %

37%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.07

Stoke City

Analysis

Our model puts a Blackburn Rovers win at 47.8% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.07.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,347 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.5% of the time — 722 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 27 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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