Atlético Tucumán vs Argentinos Juniors

Tuesday, 3 November 2026 at 00:15

Win probability

35%

Atlético Tucumán wins

26%

Draw

40%

Argentinos Juniors wins

xG Home

1.30

Atlético Tucumán

Blowout %

26%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.41

Argentinos Juniors

Analysis

Our model puts an Argentinos Juniors win at 39.5% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.41.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,347 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 845 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 27 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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