Tenerife vs FC Andorra
Our model puts a Tenerife win at 42.4% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.1.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,627 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.5% of the time — 943 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.1 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
Tenerife struggles to hit the target: 26.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; FC Andorra hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.3% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
FC Andorra take 15.9 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Tenerife collect 3.7 cards a match, on 14.8 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
33.3% of Tenerife's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.