Stade de Reims vs Sochaux
Our model puts a Stade de Reims win at 59.7% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.87 to 0.9.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,440 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.4% of the time — 466 fixtures in that band. That is 9 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Stade Reims carry a rating of 1591 against 1486 for Sochaux, a gap of 105 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Stade de Reims are hard to beat
Stade de Reims have gone 17 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.