Red Bull Bragantino vs Santos

Monday, 2 November 2026 at 23:00

Win probability

33%

Red Bull Bragantino wins

26%

Draw

42%

Santos wins

xG Home

1.25

Red Bull Bragantino

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.45

Santos

Analysis

Our model puts a Santos win at 41.7% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.25 to 1.45.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1498 against 1521, a gap of 24 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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