Real Valladolid vs Leganés

Monday, 2 November 2026 at 17:30

Win probability

42%

Real Valladolid wins

26%

Draw

33%

Leganés wins

xG Home

1.47

Real Valladolid

Blowout %

34%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.26

Leganés

Analysis

Our model puts a Real Valladolid win at 41.8% in this Segunda Division fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.47 to 1.26.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

A disciplinary record worth knowing

Leganés collect 3.4 cards a match, on 15.6 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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