Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo FC

Monday, 2 November 2026 at 02:45

Win probability

39%

Portland Timbers wins

25%

Draw

36%

Houston Dynamo FC wins

xG Home

1.48

Portland Timbers

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.41

Houston Dynamo FC

Analysis

Our model puts a Portland Timbers win at 39.1% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.48 to 1.41.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,347 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.2% of the time — 845 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.4 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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