Mallorca vs Cádiz
Our model puts a Mallorca win at 71.5% in this Segunda Division fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.06 to 0.59.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Mallorca carry a rating of 1640 against 1471 for Cadiz, a gap of 169 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Mallorca's attack should find room against Cádiz's defence, by 95 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Cádiz collect 3.7 cards a match, on 12.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
70.6% of Cádiz's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.