LAFC vs Minnesota United FC

Monday, 2 November 2026 at 01:30

Win probability

54%

LAFC wins

23%

Draw

23%

Minnesota United FC wins

xG Home

1.80

LAFC

Blowout %

48%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.07

Minnesota United FC

Analysis

Our model puts a LAFC win at 54% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.8 to 1.07.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1496 against 1477, a gap of 19 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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