Gil Vicente vs Vitória de Guimaraes

Monday, 2 November 2026 at 20:15

Win probability

55%

Gil Vicente wins

24%

Draw

21%

Vitória de Guimaraes wins

xG Home

1.69

Gil Vicente

Blowout %

35%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.93

Vitória de Guimaraes

Analysis

Our model puts a Gil Vicente win at 54.9% in this Primeira Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.69 to 0.93.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export