Genclerbirligi vs Alanyaspor
Our model puts a Genclerbirligi win at 41.6% in this Süper Lig fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.14.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Early or late
42.9% of Alanyaspor's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 14 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target Alanyaspor face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.