● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 26 October 2026
Swedish Allsvenskan
GAIS vs AIK
Monday, 2 November 2026 at 18:00
Win probability
13%
GAIS wins
18%
Draw
69%
AIK wins
xG Home
0.83
GAIS
Blowout %
14%
Dominant win
xG Away
2.28
AIK
Analysis
Our model puts an AIK win at 69.2% in this Swedish Allsvenskan fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.83 to 2.28.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football
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