Deportivo vs Osasuna
Our model puts an Osasuna win at 41.1% in this La Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.19 to 1.38.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Osasuna carry a rating of 1661 against 1544 for Deportivo, a gap of 117 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Osasuna's attack should find room against Deportivo's defence, by 134 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
53.6% of the shots on target Osasuna face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.