Wolfsberger vs SK Sturm Graz

Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 13:30

Win probability

53%

Wolfsberger wins

23%

Draw

24%

SK Sturm Graz wins

xG Home

1.86

Wolfsberger

Blowout %

60%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.18

SK Sturm Graz

Analysis

Our model puts a Wolfsberger win at 52.8% in this Austrian Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.86 to 1.18.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1543 against 1518, a gap of 25 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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