US Avellino vs Pisa

Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 14:00

Win probability

38%

US Avellino wins

28%

Draw

35%

Pisa wins

xG Home

1.25

US Avellino

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.18

Pisa

Analysis

Our model puts an US Avellino win at 37.9% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.25 to 1.18.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1467 against 1485, a gap of 18 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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