Trabzonspor vs Gaziantep FK
Our model puts a Trabzonspor win at 85% in this Süper Lig fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 3.12 to 0.58.
The ratings gap
Trabzonspor carry a rating of 1628 against 1486 for Gaziantep FK, a gap of 142 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Trabzonspor's attack should find room against Gaziantep FK's defence, by 175 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Trabzonspor are on a run
Trabzonspor arrive on 5 straight wins, part of 5 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Finding the target
Trabzonspor hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Behind the defence
80.7% of the shots on target Trabzonspor face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 74.3%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.