● aleavici-football · v1.0-xgboost · 26 October 2026
Liga MX
Santos vs Necaxa
Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 23:00
Win probability
82%
Santos wins
12%
Draw
6%
Necaxa wins
xG Home
3.07
Santos
Blowout %
58%
Dominant win
xG Away
0.74
Necaxa
Analysis
Our model puts a Santos win at 81.6% in this Liga MX fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 3.07 to 0.74.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 82.1% of the time — 84 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.2%, so the two are within 3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football
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