Panetolikos vs OFI Crete
Our model puts a Panetolikos win at 44% in this Greek Super League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.48 to 1.18.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Finding the target
Panetolikos struggles to hit the target: 26.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; OFI Crete struggles to hit the target: 24.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Panetolikos manage 8.7 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Panetolikos collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.3 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
25% of OFI Crete's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.