Newell's Old Boys vs Unión (Santa Fe)

Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 21:30

Win probability

63%

Newell's Old Boys wins

21%

Draw

17%

Unión (Santa Fe) wins

xG Home

2.08

Newell's Old Boys

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.96

Unión (Santa Fe)

Analysis

Our model puts a Newell's Old Boys win at 62.6% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.08 to 0.96.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export