Monterrey vs Tijuana

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,202 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.2% of the time — 412 fixtures in that band. That is 9.2 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.