Malmö FF vs Hammarby IF

Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 13:00

Win probability

44%

Malmö FF wins

26%

Draw

30%

Hammarby IF wins

xG Home

1.46

Malmö FF

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.14

Hammarby IF

Analysis

Our model puts a Malmö FF win at 44.2% in this Swedish Allsvenskan fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.46 to 1.14.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Malmö FF are off their season peak

Malmö FF peaked at 1522 this season and sit at 1477 today, 45 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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