Lommel SK vs KAA Gent

Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 17:30

Win probability

31%

Lommel SK wins

25%

Draw

44%

KAA Gent wins

xG Home

1.29

Lommel SK

Blowout %

29%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.58

KAA Gent

Analysis

Our model puts a KAA Gent win at 44% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.29 to 1.58.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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