Liverpool vs Arsenal
Our model puts an Arsenal win at 48.9% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.08 to 1.59.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Arsenal carry a rating of 2027 against 1871 for Liverpool, a gap of 156 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Arsenal's attack should find room against Liverpool's defence, by 169 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Liverpool are on a run
Liverpool arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Liverpool take 15.3 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
77.8% of Liverpool's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
77.4% of the shots on target Arsenal face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.