Lanús vs Gimnasia (Mendoza)
Our model puts a Lanús win at 58.5% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.92 to 0.99.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1514 against 1502, a gap of 12 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Lanús are hard to beat
Lanús have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.