Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor
Our model puts an Istanbul Basaksehir win at 64.5% in this Süper Lig fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.09 to 0.89.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Istanbul Basaksehir's attack should find room against Samsunspor's defence, by 118 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.