Hellas Verona vs Carrarese
Our model puts a Hellas Verona win at 59.2% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.76 to 0.83.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Carrarese are off their season peak
Carrarese peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1435 today, 65 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Carrarese struggles to hit the target: 23.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.