Guadalajara vs Atlante
Our model puts a Guadalajara win at 72.4% in this Liga MX fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.62 to 0.92.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1503 against 1490, a gap of 13 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.