Estudiantes de La Plata vs Instituto (Córdoba)

Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 00:30

Win probability

37%

Estudiantes de La Plata wins

26%

Draw

37%

Instituto (Córdoba) wins

xG Home

1.34

Estudiantes de La Plata

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.35

Instituto (Córdoba)

Analysis

Our model puts an Instituto (Córdoba) win at 37.1% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.34 to 1.35.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export