Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire FC

Sunday, 1 November 2026 at 01:30

Win probability

43%

Colorado Rapids wins

26%

Draw

31%

Chicago Fire FC wins

xG Home

1.47

Colorado Rapids

Blowout %

33%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.19

Chicago Fire FC

Analysis

Our model puts a Colorado Rapids win at 43.3% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.47 to 1.19.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1490 against 1515, a gap of 25 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 26 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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