Arouca vs C.D. Nacional
Our model puts an Arouca win at 78.4% in this Primeira Liga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.79 to 0.74.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 82.1% of the time — 84 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.2%, so the two are within 3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Arouca collect 3.2 cards a match, on 12.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 63.7%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.