Académico de Viseu vs Rio Ave
Our model puts an Académico de Viseu win at 51.4% in this Primeira Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.66 to 1.04.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1530 against 1510, a gap of 20 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Académico de Viseu are on a run
Académico de Viseu arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Finding the target
Rio Ave hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Académico de Viseu collect 3.2 cards a match, on 14.7 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
33.3% of Académico de Viseu's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 9 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
82.9% of the shots on target Académico de Viseu face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.