1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Cologne
Our model puts a 1. FC Union Berlin win at 68.6% in this Bundesliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.28 to 0.86.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, 1. FC Union Berlin's attack should find room against FC Cologne's defence, by 109 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Early or late
73.3% of 1. FC Union Berlin's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 15 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.