West Ham United vs West Bromwich Albion
Our model puts a West Ham United win at 74.8% in this Championship fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.43 to 0.69.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price West Bromwich Albion at 5.25, which implies about 19%. Our model has it at 9% — 10 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
West Ham United carry a rating of 1701 against 1517 for West Bromwich Albion, a gap of 184 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, West Ham United's attack should find room against West Bromwich Albion's defence, by 196 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Early or late
71.4% of West Ham United's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 28 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 69.7%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.