Waasland-Beveren vs Union St.-Gilloise
Our model puts an Union St.-Gilloise win at 55.5% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.92 to 1.7.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Union St.-Gilloise carry a rating of 1634 against 1424 for Waasland-Beveren, a gap of 210 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Union St.-Gilloise's attack should find room against Waasland-Beveren's defence, by 178 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Union St.-Gilloise are hard to beat
Union St.-Gilloise have gone 13 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Waasland-Beveren are off their season peak
Waasland-Beveren peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1424 today, 76 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Waasland-Beveren hits the target more often than almost anyone: 41.3% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 33.9%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.