Udinese vs AS Roma
Our model puts an AS Roma win at 61.1% in this Serie A fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.87 to 1.9.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 49.3% of the time — 438 fixtures in that band. That is 10.1 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
AS Roma carry a rating of 1823 against 1609 for Udinese, a gap of 214 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AS Roma's attack should find room against Udinese's defence, by 240 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Udinese are off their season peak
Udinese peaked at 1654 this season and sit at 1609 today, 45 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
AS Roma take 16.6 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
86.7% of the shots on target AS Roma face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.