Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace
Our model puts a Tottenham Hotspur win at 44.5% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.57 to 1.25.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Tottenham Hotspur at 1.62, which implies about 61.7%. Our model has it at 44.5% — 17.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1739 against 1741, a gap of 2 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Tottenham Hotspur's attack should find room against Crystal Palace's defence, by 101 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
56.7% of the shots on target Crystal Palace face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.