SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Our model puts a SV Darmstadt 98 win at 43.8% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.5 to 1.21.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price 1. FC Magdeburg at 2.3, which implies about 43.5%. Our model has it at 30.7% — 12.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1521 against 1503, a gap of 18 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.