Stoke City vs Preston North End
Our model puts a Stoke City win at 68.1% in this Championship fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.17 to 0.8.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Stoke City at 1.67, which implies about 59.9%. Our model has it at 68.1% — 8.2 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Preston North End are off their season peak
Preston North End peaked at 1520 this season and sit at 1462 today, 57 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.