Sarmiento (Junín) vs Rosario Central

Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 00:15

Win probability

28%

Sarmiento (Junín) wins

24%

Draw

49%

Rosario Central wins

xG Home

1.28

Sarmiento (Junín)

Blowout %

28%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.77

Rosario Central

Analysis

Our model puts a Rosario Central win at 48.7% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.28 to 1.77.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Rosario Central are on a run

Rosario Central arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 7 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export