San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake

Saturday, 31 October 2026 at 21:00

Win probability

53%

San Jose Earthquakes wins

24%

Draw

24%

Real Salt Lake wins

xG Home

1.76

San Jose Earthquakes

Blowout %

46%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.09

Real Salt Lake

Analysis

Our model puts a San Jose Earthquakes win at 52.6% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.76 to 1.09.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.9% of the time — 706 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.7 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1497 against 1475, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 25 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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