Real Sociedad II vs Girona
Our model puts a Girona win at 71.1% in this Segunda Division fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.9 to 2.5.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.4% of the time — 223 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.5%, so the two are within 0.9 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Girona at 2.05, which implies about 48.8%. Our model has it at 71.1% — 22.3 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Girona carry a rating of 1635 against 1468 for Real Sociedad II, a gap of 167 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Girona's attack should find room against Real Sociedad II's defence, by 132 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Girona are hard to beat
Girona have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
How often they shoot
Girona take 16.5 shots a match against an average of 12. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.