Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
Our model puts a Rayo Vallecano win at 40.7% in this La Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.18.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 2,324 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.3% of the time — 853 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 2.3 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1701 against 1694, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
Celta Vigo manage 8.4 shots a match, against an average of 12. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
80% of the shots on target Celta Vigo face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.